What are variance and 'downstreak' in simple terms: how to maintain motivation
Poker is a game where mathematical strategy and chance walk hand in hand. Even a perfectly played hand can sometimes end in defeat, while a win may come at a moment when the odds were minimal. This is the manifestation of variance — the deviation of actual results from what you expect over the long run. Understanding variance helps to avoid tilt, maintain motivation, and make clear-headed decisions. In this article, we will explain in simple terms what variance and downswings are, why they happen even to professional players, and what to do so that a streak of bad luck doesn't throw you off course.
What is Variance in Simple Terms
Variance is the discrepancy between what we expect to achieve over the long term and what is happening right now. In poker, this factor is particularly strong because every hand is a result of the interplay between strategy and chance.
Even the weakest hand, like 72o, wins about 11% of hands against pocket aces. This seems paradoxical, but it is these kinds of 'bad beats' that keep weaker players in the game, making poker a profitable pursuit for those who understand mathematics and the long game.
Successfully managing variance can help avoid tilt, maintain your A-game, and make sound decisions regardless of current outcomes.
What is a Downstreak and Why It’s Not Just Bad Play
A downstreak is a period when you're making the right decisions but getting poor results. It's not a strategic error or an indication of a player’s skill — it's part of the game.
Even professionals experience long losing streaks. The difference is, they don’t make emotional judgments — a lost tournament or a series of bad sessions does not negate the expected value over time.
The main mistake a novice player makes is to see a downstreak as a sign that ‘I’m playing badly’ or ‘I’ll never make it’. A professional approach is to view the situation through the lens of long-term expectation and analysis.
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What Determines the Frequency and Depth of Downstreaks
1. Level of Play
The higher the quality of decisions, the less deep and prolonged the downturns will be. A strategy focused on expected value smooths out the variance.
2. Player's Psychology
Emotions directly affect decisions. Sitting down at the table when tired or irritable, downturns rarely limit themselves to one hand — they intensify and lead to a chain of poor decisions that can carry over from session to session, diminishing expected outcomes over time.
3. Volume
Downstreaks are not infinite. The more hands you play, the faster actual profit aligns with the expected value.
How to Survive a Downstreak: Practical Recommendations
1. Stop and Assess the Situation Rationally
The first mistake is trying to 'catch up the variance'. When a player hits a downturn and starts increasing volume, decision quality drops and losses increase.
The professional move is to take a break, restore mental state, and look at the game objectively.
2. Review Your Game Graph
The graph is an objective source of information. It helps distinguish between gameplay issues and mood problems.
If the yellow line — representing expected value — has been trending down for a long time, it's likely the player is making suboptimal decisions and deviating from profitable strategies.
If the graph was stable or growing, and a downturn appeared suddenly, this is an expression of variance, and it must be withstood.
3. Work on Mistakes
Session review is the best way to regain confidence. In this case, professional players use software, review session recordings, note key situations, and analyze hands.
This reduces emotional pressure, quickly identifies error patterns, and enhances understanding of what influences the outcome.
4. Reduce the Number of Tables
During a downturn, the desire to 'play more' has the opposite effect — attention scatters. Reducing the number of tables increases focus, thus improving decision quality.
5. Drop Down a Limit
This reduces emotional pressure and the risk of major losses. Playing at lower stakes helps rebuild confidence and gameplay quality without overloading the mental state.
6. Take Breaks Between Sessions
If a player feels the urge to 'win back', the best decision is to take a break. A day, a week, a month — as long as it takes.
Playing emotionally is the worst choice during a downturn. Rested, a player returns to the tables with clarity and confidence in their abilities.
7. Use the Downstreak as a Learning Opportunity
Paradoxically, it is during a downturn that players learn best. When everything is going perfectly, it seems like nothing needs changing. When losing, weak spots become clear — and it's the perfect moment for growth.
How to Maintain Motivation During a Downstreak
The most important advice is to shift focus from results to the process. Variance becomes painful when a player judges themselves by the financial outcome of each session.
It's much more beneficial to track:
the quality of decisions
the execution of the plan
state of mind during play.
Conclusion
Variance is not a glitch in the system, but an integral part of it. Downstreaks happen to every player, regardless of skill level.
If they are viewed as a temporary phase rather than a diagnosis, maintaining a systematic approach and working on the game — motivation will remain stable, and long-term results will only improve.
If you want to learn to endure variance steadily, keep making high-quality decisions, and build a professional game over the long haul — apply to FunFarm and grow together with our team.
FAQ
Why does a downswing happen even when playing well?
Because poker involves an element of chance. Even the perfect decision can lead to a loss. Over the long term, strategy always prevails, but short-term deviations are inevitable.
How can you tell if it's variance and not mistakes?
Look at the graph and analyse key hands. If the strategic decisions are correct and the downturn is sharp, it's variance. If mistakes are recurring, it's worth paying attention to the quality of your training.
Can a downswing be beneficial?
Yes. It is the best period for learning: analysing hands, working on weak areas, strengthening discipline. And if you join our team, we will also conduct psychological sessions with you, aimed at strengthening mental health.