Poker outs, equity and pot odds calculator
The odds of getting there from the flop and from the turn, the equity a call needs by pot odds, and whether your draw has it. With the rule of 4 and 2, a cheat sheet and a mini drill.
Outs
Common draws
The rule of 4 and 2
Flop: outs × 4. Turn: outs × 2.
Multiplying by four only works if you are going all the way to the river — that is, the money went in on the flop.
Odds of getting there
Flop → turn
19.1%
one card
Turn → river
19.6%
The rule gives ≈ 18%
Flop → river
35%
The rule gives ≈ 36%
- Rule's error on the flop
- 1.03 pts
- Cards left on the flop
- 47
- Cards left on the turn
- 46
The rule of 4 and 2
Nobody works out fractions at the table: you multiply your outs by four with two cards to come and by two with one. For nine outs the rule gives 36% against an exact 35% — near enough. On big draws it overstates: fifteen outs come to 60% by the rule and about 54% in reality.
The reason is simple — the second card is drawn from an already thinner deck, while multiplying treats both streets as equally generous.
Pot odds: does your equity cover the call?
The equity formula for a call
Eq = your call ÷ (pot + bet + your call)
50 ÷ (100 + 50 + 50) = 25%
Equity needed
25%
Pot odds 3:1
What your outs give
19.1%
9 outs, counting the turn only
Not enough equity
5.85 pts short. The call loses on its own: you need implied odds — the money you collect when the draw gets there.
Break-even needs at least 12 outs.
Pot odds and draw equity are the same number read from two sides: the pot odds say how much equity a hand needs for the call to pay for itself. «Flop → river» only counts when the money is already in — otherwise you have to pay again on the turn.
Mini drill: estimate the equity from the outs
Spot
Gutshot on the turn
4 outs
Streak
0
Name a percentage and press «Check» — the working appears here.
Cheat sheet for common draws
| Draw | Outs | Hits on the turn | Hits on the river | Flop → river |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pocket pair to a set | 2 | 4.3% | 4.3% | 8.4% |
| One overcard to a pair | 3 | 6.4% | 6.5% | 12.5% |
| Gutshot to a straight | 4 | 8.5% | 8.7% | 16.5% |
| Pair to two pair or a set | 5 | 10.6% | 10.9% | 20.4% |
| Two overcards to a pair | 6 | 12.8% | 13% | 24.1% |
| Open-ended straight draw to a straight | 8 | 17% | 17.4% | 31.5% |
| Flush draw to a flush | 9 | 19.1% | 19.6% | 35% |
| Flush draw + gutshot | 12 | 25.5% | 26.1% | 45% |
| Flush draw + OESD | 15 | 31.9% | 32.6% | 54.1% |
«Hits on the turn» is one card from the flop, 47 unknown. «Hits on the river» is one card from the turn, 46 unknown. The last column adds both streets and only applies once the money is already in.
How this is worked out
After the flop you can see five cards out of fifty-two, which leaves forty-seven unknown in the deck. The chance of getting there is worked out through the misses: the odds that neither the turn nor the river brings an out are multiplied together, and the result is subtracted from one.
Pot odds: how much equity a call needs
Pot odds and draw equity are the same quantity read from two sides. Your call buys you a share of the final pot, and you need to win exactly that share of the hands for the call to break even:
Equity needed = your call ÷ (pot + bet + your call)
An example: 100 in the pot on the flop, your opponent bets 50, and you hold a flush draw. You have to put in 50, the final pot is 200, so the equity you need is 50 ÷ 200 = 25%. One card off the flop brings the flush 19% of the time, so the bare call loses; through to the river, with the money already in, the equity is 35% and the call is comfortably profitable.
Implied odds
The gap between 19% and the 25% you need is closed by the money you collect on later streets once the draw arrives. That is why draws get called with deep stacks even where the bare pot odds do not add up — but only if your opponent will actually pay. Against a short stack, or on a board where your flush is obvious, there is nothing left to collect.
When multiplying by four does not work
The factor of four assumes you will see both cards. That only holds once the money is already in — an all-in on the flop, say. If a turn bet is still coming that you will have to call, count one street at a time: outs × 2.
Clean and dirty outs
Count your outs conservatively. The card that gives you a straight may give your opponent a flush; a low flush draw arrives into a losing hand; and pairing your hand sometimes wins nothing at all. The experienced habit is to subtract an out or two from the ones that look doubtful and count from what is left.
How many folds your own bet needs is the reverse problem, and it is worked out in the fold equity calculator.
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