A supercomputer predicted the WSOP Main Event champion

Ahead of the World Series of Poker Main Event final table kicking off, the Advanced Poker Training team used an AI supercomputer to make its prediction for the winner. Back in 2016, the company, founded by scientist and developer Steve Blay, correctly identified Qui Nguyen as the most likely champion, even though he wasn't the chip leader at the final table.

In its calculations, Advanced Poker Training relies on more than 40 adjustable characteristics applied to each player. For example, the system analyzes how a player reacts to ICM pressure, how reluctant they are to risk their tournament life, and which hands they steal blinds with. This time, in making the prediction, the supercomputer ran 1,000,000 simulations, though back in 2016 it only needed 100 to correctly identify the champion.

To start with, the biggest disappointment of the simulations was Rami Hammoud, who will begin the final table with the second-largest stack. According to the supercomputer's projections, his results came in nearly 5% below what ICM suggests. The reasons cited are an overly aggressive playing style and his seat at the table.

"Every time Hammoud finds himself on the cutoff or the button, the two best positions for stealing blinds, Jumalon is waiting for him in the blinds with a huge stack and maximum leverage. This is arguably the most awkward seating arrangement possible," says Steve Blay.

The winner of the simulations in 40.4% of cases was Lucas Jumalon. However, according to the computer's projections, his average winnings exceed ICM expectations by just 2%. Moreover, in 1% of simulations the chip leader busted in ninth place.

"It's no surprise that Jumalon dominated the simulations. It's the math. The other players simply can't play as aggressively, because every clash carries huge ICM consequences for them," said Blay.

That said, Steve Blay himself is betting on a different contender to win. Working in his favor are a great deal of experience, numerous WSOP cashes, and three bracelets. "The player who stood out again and again in my simulations is Greg Mueller. Time after time, he found a way to run up his stack, and there's a reason for that. Experience matters, especially on poker's biggest stage."

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