GGPoker Ignored an Early Report About Paul Gregge
The scandal surrounding cheater Paul Gregg, who used the Mesh Agent trojan, keeps gathering new details. High-stakes player Patrick Howard reported that GGPoker's security team ignored his report on anomalies in Gregg's play.
According to Howard, he sent the report on September 1, having put it together after one of his friends practically stopped playing against Gregg due to the high share of losses. In his study, the regular doesn't accuse Gregg of cheating, but recommends keeping an eye on him because of certain unusual data.
Howard examined 32,780 hands of Gregg's on GGPoker, most of which were played at $10/$20 stakes at 6-max tables. The player's overall winrate across this sample is 13.9 bb/100. Meanwhile, comparable regulars showed a winrate of -3 bb/100.
However, Howard allows that such a high result from Gregg could be acceptable for an elite player on a moderately strong upswing. By his estimates, a strong regular with a true winrate of 9 bb/100 could reach Gregg's numbers roughly in 1 case out of 11.
The main suspicion was raised by the fact that Gregg won at showdown in pots over 40 bb in 75.6% of hands after a bet or raise on the river. For other regulars this figure was 58.2%.
Moreover, the bigger the pot got, the better Gregg's results were. In pots over 150 bb his share of wins rose to 74.3% versus 61.2% for other players. But such stats in deep stacks, in Howard's opinion, could also be posted by a tight player with an extremely strong range.
Gregg also frequently called river bets correctly. In pots over 40 bb he won 52 out of 81 such hands, showing an efficiency of 64.2% versus 48.6% for other regulars. Howard rated this figure as very good, but not exceptional.
Within the sample, Howard also analyzed the stats of a player designated as "J", who very often lost to Gregg. Across 5,995 shared hands, J's winrate was -44.2 bb/100. He also lost a lot to other winning regulars:
🟣 Against Pedro Neves: 2,427 hands, −34.7 bb/100.
🟡 Against Matjaz Vogrinc: 6,102 hands, −21.9 bb/100.
🟣 Against Ivan Erena: 2,631 hands, −19.6 bb/100.
Howard proposed that GGPoker log his report as a baseline sample, and then analyze new hands using similar criteria. He also recommended paying attention to whether the pattern repeats. In the case of an upswing, the winrate should decrease over the following months when playing against different opponents. However, Howard still hasn't received a reply from the room.
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According to Howard, he sent the report on September 1, having put it together after one of his friends practically stopped playing against Gregg due to the high share of losses. In his study, the regular doesn't accuse Gregg of cheating, but recommends keeping an eye on him because of certain unusual data.
Howard examined 32,780 hands of Gregg's on GGPoker, most of which were played at $10/$20 stakes at 6-max tables. The player's overall winrate across this sample is 13.9 bb/100. Meanwhile, comparable regulars showed a winrate of -3 bb/100.
However, Howard allows that such a high result from Gregg could be acceptable for an elite player on a moderately strong upswing. By his estimates, a strong regular with a true winrate of 9 bb/100 could reach Gregg's numbers roughly in 1 case out of 11.
The main suspicion was raised by the fact that Gregg won at showdown in pots over 40 bb in 75.6% of hands after a bet or raise on the river. For other regulars this figure was 58.2%.
Moreover, the bigger the pot got, the better Gregg's results were. In pots over 150 bb his share of wins rose to 74.3% versus 61.2% for other players. But such stats in deep stacks, in Howard's opinion, could also be posted by a tight player with an extremely strong range.
Gregg also frequently called river bets correctly. In pots over 40 bb he won 52 out of 81 such hands, showing an efficiency of 64.2% versus 48.6% for other regulars. Howard rated this figure as very good, but not exceptional.
Within the sample, Howard also analyzed the stats of a player designated as "J", who very often lost to Gregg. Across 5,995 shared hands, J's winrate was -44.2 bb/100. He also lost a lot to other winning regulars:
🟣 Against Pedro Neves: 2,427 hands, −34.7 bb/100.
🟡 Against Matjaz Vogrinc: 6,102 hands, −21.9 bb/100.
🟣 Against Ivan Erena: 2,631 hands, −19.6 bb/100.
Howard proposed that GGPoker log his report as a baseline sample, and then analyze new hands using similar criteria. He also recommended paying attention to whether the pattern repeats. In the case of an upswing, the winrate should decrease over the following months when playing against different opponents. However, Howard still hasn't received a reply from the room.
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