The favorite to win the WSOP Main Event has been revealed

The Polymarket prediction market has produced a ranking of the contenders to win the 2026 World Series of Poker Main Event. Bets on the outcome of the final table have topped the $10,000 mark, with final-table chip leader Lucas Jumalon heading the odds. His probability of winning is estimated at 35%. Following him at a significant distance are Rami Hammoud (16%) and Michael Gagliano (11%).

Jumalon will start the final table with a stack of 129 big blinds, more than a third of all the chips still in play. A chip leader at the WSOP Main Event final table has never had such an advantage over the past 18 years.

However, Jumalon is the least experienced player of the entire nine. He has been playing live tournaments for about three years. Hammoud, Gagliano and Jamie Shaywel have been competing for more than 10 years, and Greg Mueller's experience spans 23 years. Logically, the chip leader also trails his rivals in live winnings. Jumalon has just $180,000 in prize money to his name, whereas Mueller has earned more than $3.5 million.

The Polymarket odds could shift significantly before the final table gets underway after a few big bets. For now, traders are placing great weight on Jumalon's stack, without fully accounting for variance and the experience of the chip leader's opponents.

Current Polymarket odds to win the 2026 WSOP Main Event:
1️⃣ Lucas Jumalon (🇺🇸, 129 BB) — 35%
2️⃣ Rami Hammoud (🇨🇦, 53 BB) — 14%
3️⃣ Michael Gagliano (🇺🇸, 31 BB) — 11%
4️⃣ Jamie Shaywel (🇺🇸, 37 BB) — 10%
5️⃣ Greg Mueller (🇨🇦, 32 BB) — 9%
6️⃣ Mario Boos (🇫🇷, 29 BB) — 8%
7️⃣ Han Feng (🇺🇸, 17 BB) — 7%
8️⃣ Lauri Saaskilahti (🇫🇮, 25 BB) — 5%
9️⃣ Evagoras Evagorou (🇨🇾, 15 BB) — 5%

The World Series Main Event final table will run from August 3 to 5. All players have locked up seven-figure payouts, and the winner will take home $10,000,000.

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