How to stop fearing mistakes in poker?

The more you learn, the more you doubt yourself at the table? Let's examine the Dunning-Kruger effect in poker and explain why the 'valley of despair' is a sign of growth, not failure.

Mistakes are an integral part of the development of any poker player. However, the fear of making them often paralyses, hindering action, analysis, and progression.

To stop fearing mistakes, one must understand why we make them, how self-esteem works in the learning process, and why self-doubt is not a sign of weakness but a step towards professional growth.

Today, we will examine how the Dunning-Kruger psychological effect manifests in poker, what happens when confidence falters, and how to turn doubt into a tool for progress.

What is the Dunning-Kruger Effect

In 1999, psychologists David Dunning and Justin Kruger proved that those who know the least are most confident in themselves.

The research began with a curious case: a man attempted to rob a bank by smearing his face with lemon juice—he thought the juice would make him 'invisible' to the cameras. When caught, he was genuinely surprised. Thus, the scientists concluded: the lower the competence, the higher the self-confidence.

This effect is rampant in poker. Let's explore how it manifests in a player's growth dynamics.

The Peak of Confidence: The Illusion of Simplicity

At the start, everything seems straightforward. A couple of successful sessions, a few YouTube videos, the first wins—and the feeling arises: 'I've already got it all figured out.'

This stage can be called the 'peak of stupidity'. The player feels confident but only sees the surface of the game. They win their first tournaments at low limits*, call opponents fish, and stop learning. Any loss is attributed to bad luck. 

This is a natural, even beneficial stage—it's what sparks excitement and interest. But if you become stuck in this state, progress halts. You could spend years hitting a ceiling at low limits*, not realising that the issue is not luck but the illusion of competence.

* Fish - a term used to describe a weak player who frequently makes mistakes and plays without a clear strategy.

* Low limit - a level of stakes where games are played for relatively small amounts of money.

The Valley of Despair: When Confidence Collapses

The next stage is a sharp drop in confidence. The deeper you delve into poker, the clearer it becomes how little you know.

Replacing the phrase 'I'm almost a professional' comes:

— 'I don't understand anything',
— 'I'm playing worse than before',
— 'Poker might not be for me'.

This is painful, but absolutely normal. The player is not regressing—on the contrary, they begin to see the true complexity of the game.

The key here is not to give up. This is a stage of realisation, not failure.

What helps to get through the 'valley of despair'? 

— Maintaining routine. It's necessary to keep learning, even if it seems no progress is being made. It's there—just not visible yet.
Receiving feedback. Analyses with a coach and team will help differentiate real decline from distorted perception.
Recording achievements. It's important to note what new things have been understood and which mistakes are no longer being made.

The Slope of Enlightenment and Plateau of Stability

If a player doesn’t give up—a climb begins. Knowledge gradually builds into a system, mistakes cease to be frightening, and confidence becomes calm and mature.

The player no longer reacts to each setback, but analyses and moves forward. This is the stage of enlightenment—where competence grows, and self-assessment becomes realistic.

Then comes the plateau of stability—a state where the player recognises their strengths and weaknesses, but no longer oscillates between 'I'm amazing' and 'I'm nothing'—they simply continue to work systematically. 

How to maintain progress? 

  • Continue to doubt—but constructively.

  • Develop weak areas—not just the strong ones.

  • Compare yourself not to others, but to yourself three months ago.

How to Foster Discipline and Resilience

To gradually let go of the fear of making mistakes, one must move towards their goal each day, be diligent, and work honestly. What psychological adjustments can assist a player on this journey? 

1. Don't expect a perfect start from yourself

The brain fears large tasks. But if you start small—such as 'review three hands'—a dopamine cycle begins: action → result → pleasure → repetition.

2. Create a ritual to start work

Repetitive actions (music, tea, posture) create a connection: 'this context = training'. This reduces resistance and helps you get started.

3. Record why you are working

When lazy, the brain forgets 'why'. A visible formulation of the goal restores focus and energy.

4. Set specific goals. 'Review 3 hands', 'Find 1 mistake'. The brain loves clarity—it gives a sense of control.

5. Share results and impressions with other players. When you tell insights or discuss hands, the knowledge is anchored much more firmly.

6. Allow yourself to make mistakes. A mistake is not an indicator of weakness, but a signal for growth. A player who can acknowledge and analyse it always triumphs over the long term. 

Conclusion

Every professional goes through the illusion of knowledge, doubt, and enlightenment. The key is not to stop in the 'valley of despair', but to keep going—step by step.

At the FunFarm poker foundation, we help players not only develop their game strategy, but also to become more disciplined, persistent, and confident in themselves.

Apply now and turn the fear of mistakes into fuel for professional growth.

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