Is Ocean KO really a lottery?
The large-scale Ocean KO Opener has officially wrapped up, leaving behind a world record for the number of entries. And while the community keeps arguing about the "uncontrollable variance" of the new format, we decided to check its math. We ran a simulation in Fyodor Truntsev's calculator over a sample of 50,000 tournaments with a $10 buy-in and 18% ROI.
In terms of risk, Ocean KO is comparable to PKO, yet it's safer than freezeouts. The chart shows that the worst freezeout run goes down to -990.3 BI, whereas in Ocean KO the worst-case scenario still gives +886.7 BI. Such a plus in the worst run comes from the specifics of the format — over a sample of 50,000 tournaments a player racks up a volume of small knockouts.
If you take the 5% worst runs per format over this sample, a prolonged downswing in a freezeout translates into running 5,000 buy-ins below EV, while in Ocean KO that figure stays around 4,400.
Thanks to its jackpot pool, Ocean KO has enormous potential for building a bankroll. While the best run in PKO brings in 19,635 BI, in Ocean KO it soars to 33,696 BI. Converted into $10 tournaments, this means that with a perfect set of circumstances and an upswing over a sample of 50k tournaments a player is capable of earning $336,960.
➡️ Go to the calculator and try running different parameters yourself.
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In terms of risk, Ocean KO is comparable to PKO, yet it's safer than freezeouts. The chart shows that the worst freezeout run goes down to -990.3 BI, whereas in Ocean KO the worst-case scenario still gives +886.7 BI. Such a plus in the worst run comes from the specifics of the format — over a sample of 50,000 tournaments a player racks up a volume of small knockouts.
If you take the 5% worst runs per format over this sample, a prolonged downswing in a freezeout translates into running 5,000 buy-ins below EV, while in Ocean KO that figure stays around 4,400.
Thanks to its jackpot pool, Ocean KO has enormous potential for building a bankroll. While the best run in PKO brings in 19,635 BI, in Ocean KO it soars to 33,696 BI. Converted into $10 tournaments, this means that with a perfect set of circumstances and an upswing over a sample of 50k tournaments a player is capable of earning $336,960.
➡️ Go to the calculator and try running different parameters yourself.
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