Fold or call with AKs on the direct bubble?
A hand from Day 1 of the WSOP Circuit Main Event in California sparked a heated discussion in the community. Its protagonist was Jeff Day, who faced a tough choice — risk his last chips right on the bubble, or fold and hope to lock up a $3,430 min-cash?
Here's how it played out: Yao Zhao jammed for 9.7 BB from the hijack, and Matthew Krieger moved all-in from the button for 10.8 BB. Day was in the big blind with only 1.9 BB left. And he was holding A♥️K♥️.
By folding, Day could have kept his very short stack and his chances of making the money. A successful call would have boosted his stack to 7.7 BB.
In an interview with Poker.org, Day described his thought process during the hand:
"Honestly, I looked at ace-king and thought, 'Oh, hell.' Another big factor was that we'd already been on the bubble for over an hour, and in all that time there had been only two all-ins that got called. That's just not normal.
When I saw AKs, I figured I most likely had the best hand or the chance to make the best hand. In the past I would have folded instantly. This time I decided to throw caution aside and trust the math."
The players Day discussed the hand with were split almost evenly. The experts Poker.org surveyed also landed on different decisions.
Jonathan Little, regular and PokerCoaching trainer: fold.
"With no payout considerations the call would be obvious, but with a very short stack and right on the bubble, it's probably better to fold and hope to make the money."
Matt Affleck, PokerCoaching trainer: leaning call.
"Honestly, I don't know. I've stopped studying spots like this that hard. Probably a call. People will likely prove later that it's a mistake, but I'm not sure. Offsuit AK I'd throw away."
WSOP Circuit Main Event champion Jamie Haletky: call.
"I wouldn't hesitate. I'd rather take the chance to build a stack and play for the win than settle for a min-cash."
Day's decision: call.
Zhao had jammed with Q♠️Q♥️, and Krieger with J♣️J♠️. Zhao had the equity edge, but Krieger hit a jack on the flop and won the hand with the set. Day and Zhao busted without making the money.
Day re-entered in flight 1B, but again failed to carry a stack into Day 2, just like Zhao. Krieger, meanwhile, managed to run it up and ultimately busted on Day 2 in 45th place for $3,910.
And what would you have done in that spot?
📰 Subscribe to Pokerflow
Here's how it played out: Yao Zhao jammed for 9.7 BB from the hijack, and Matthew Krieger moved all-in from the button for 10.8 BB. Day was in the big blind with only 1.9 BB left. And he was holding A♥️K♥️.
By folding, Day could have kept his very short stack and his chances of making the money. A successful call would have boosted his stack to 7.7 BB.
In an interview with Poker.org, Day described his thought process during the hand:
"Honestly, I looked at ace-king and thought, 'Oh, hell.' Another big factor was that we'd already been on the bubble for over an hour, and in all that time there had been only two all-ins that got called. That's just not normal.
When I saw AKs, I figured I most likely had the best hand or the chance to make the best hand. In the past I would have folded instantly. This time I decided to throw caution aside and trust the math."
The players Day discussed the hand with were split almost evenly. The experts Poker.org surveyed also landed on different decisions.
Jonathan Little, regular and PokerCoaching trainer: fold.
"With no payout considerations the call would be obvious, but with a very short stack and right on the bubble, it's probably better to fold and hope to make the money."
Matt Affleck, PokerCoaching trainer: leaning call.
"Honestly, I don't know. I've stopped studying spots like this that hard. Probably a call. People will likely prove later that it's a mistake, but I'm not sure. Offsuit AK I'd throw away."
WSOP Circuit Main Event champion Jamie Haletky: call.
"I wouldn't hesitate. I'd rather take the chance to build a stack and play for the win than settle for a min-cash."
Day's decision: call.
Zhao had jammed with Q♠️Q♥️, and Krieger with J♣️J♠️. Zhao had the equity edge, but Krieger hit a jack on the flop and won the hand with the set. Day and Zhao busted without making the money.
Day re-entered in flight 1B, but again failed to carry a stack into Day 2, just like Zhao. Krieger, meanwhile, managed to run it up and ultimately busted on Day 2 in 45th place for $3,910.
And what would you have done in that spot?
📰 Subscribe to Pokerflow
