Top 5 Post-Flop Mistakes in Poker: How to Bet for Value and Stop Tilting

Working on mistakes is an effective way of learning. However, poker presents thousands of unique situations, and analysing them would take a considerable amount of time. By following simple principles, many defeats can be avoided. Let's discuss the 5 key errors in post-flop play.

Pre-flop or post-flop: which is more important?

Beginners start learning poker with the pre-flop phase. A good starting hand chart will protect a player from many issues. 

Post-flop presents more challenges for players. Many of these challenges arise from poor hand selection during the pre-flop

Strong ranges give a poker player an advantage in the post-flop phase. Playing an overpair or top pair with a good kicker is easier than dealing with a third pair and a gutshot draw. Professionals use multiple charts depending on position and tournament stage. A player constantly “juggles” different ranges. It takes more than a couple of hours to memorise all the charts. 

Correct ranges lay the foundation, but critical decisions are made in the post-flop. This includes the flop, turn, and river. A fatal error can be made at any betting stage. When community cards are dealt, a player must answer dozens of questions:

• What type of opponent are we facing?

• Is a continuation bet needed?

• What size bet should be chosen?

• What could the opponent have entered the pot with?

• How to respond to the opponent's counter aggression?

• Is it worth bluffing on the flop and what turn cards are suitable for a second bet?

A balanced strategy doesn’t make life any easier for a player. To defeat strong opponents, a poker player must adhere to GTO principles and maintain correct betting, calling, and raising frequencies. If working with pre-flop ranges takes hours, achieving a competent post-flop comes after years of training with calculators and solvers.

It's easier to realise an advantage over opponents after the community cards are dealt. A skilled player can execute a brilliant bluff or provoke the opponent's aggression. However, a poor decision costs more. Therefore, it's useful to analyse the key mistakes players make in the post-flop. 

Error #1: excessive faith in overpairs and top pairs

Many players believe they will always win the pot with aces. AA offers maximum advantage pre-flop. Against any other pocket pair, they hold 82%. If playing for the stack pre-flop, aces will win 4 out of 5 times. Post-flop, AA's chances decline. If a player goes all-in with aces on the flop and faces a flush draw opponent, the pocket pair will hold 65% of the time. AA is the best starting hand pre-flop, but in the hierarchy of combinations, it only beats high card. Aces are surpassed by: two pairs, sets, straights, flushes, full houses, quads, straight flushes, royal flushes.

For a tournament player, folding an overpair or top pair is even harder. Classic situation: blinds increase, stacks diminish, good hands don’t come for 15-20 minutes. When a suitable combination is dealt, the poker player seeks to maximise profit. In pursuit of doubling up, the player ignores: the board texture, opponents' responses, and personal observations. Sometimes a poker player realises their pair is weak on the river but fails to fold due to the pot size. In a losing situation, the player invents a reason to call, sees a better combination and exits the tournament.

A top starting hand in poker doesn’t guarantee success even pre-flop. With community cards in play, the chances of winning decrease

Big pots for strong hands, small ones for weak. The principle of the “old school” masters remains relevant today. Control pot size and don’t overplay strong but vulnerable hands on the post-flop.

Error #2: catching bluffs from unknown opponents

Catching an opponent bluffing is always satisfying. However, calling a big bet or push without solid reasons is unwise. To respond to an opponent’s aggression with a weak hand, excellent hand-reading skills or talents like Stu Ungar’s are needed. Poker tracker statistics and notes may help too. A strong player can expose an opponent using their experience. If a poker player has analysed dozens of similar situations, then a call becomes a reasonable decision.

Newbies also want to catch opponents bluffing. They usually lack notes, statistics, software analysis, or experience from hundreds of tournaments. They rely on arguments like “I don’t believe him, so I call”. In a specific situation, the decision might work, but over time it leads to losses. Play reliably and don’t risk chips in dubious plays. Winning a tournament is already difficult — don’t complicate the task with risky actions. No convincing arguments for a call — press fold.

Special mention to hands with opponent’s check/raises. In tournaments, most check/raises are for value. Almost always, a check/raise on the flop is followed by a turn bet. If you’re not prepared to play for the stack, better fold on the flop.

Error #3: big bluffs against unknowns

Strong professionals identify promising bluffing situations. They convincingly represent top combinations and compel opponents to fold. Lesser-skilled players often lose money on bluffs. Mostly due to misinterpreting opponents’ behaviours. A weak player rarely folds a top pair. They never fold two pairs or better combinations. No matter how convincingly a poker player simulates the nuts, an amateur won’t leave the pot.

When an amateur invests half their stack, it’s highly likely they’ll commit the rest

A weak player might call 1-2 streets with a middle pair. They won’t fold to a continuation bet on the flop. They aren’t convinced by a turn bet on a “scary” card either. If there’s plenty of chips, the call price is low — they might answer the river bet too. Amateurs often think similarly. Consequently, the player loses tens of blinds in situations where the flop continuation bet should have been their limit.

Error #4: small bets with strong combinations

Most starting poker hands are junk. When a player is dealt a worthy combination pre-flop, they aim to win maximum chips. However, by the time of truth, opponents often hold garbage. To earn something, the player reduces their bet size. For example, the poker player gets AA pre-flop, raises, and is called by SB. The board shows A82. A set of aces and a passive call from the opponent pre-flop almost excludes top pairs from their range. Hence, the player bets a quarter of the pot hoping for a second pair's call. Consider two betting size scenarios.

Suppose it’s the early tournament stage with blinds at 10/20. The poker player raised to 3 BB pre-flop, bringing the pot to 140 chips at the flop. Three streets of 1/4 pot bets create a final pot of 490 chips. The opponent contributes 11 blinds. Using an alternative approach with 3 value bets of 3/4 pot results in a final pot of 2,170 chips. The opponent pays over 50 blinds. With a weak combination, SB almost always folds to any turn bet. With strong hands, they'll pay for 2-3 streets. Hence, bigger bets are more profitable.

Error #5: playing GTO instead of an exploitative strategy

In the solver era, professionals aim for balance. GTO aids in combating strong opponents. However, tournaments are rife with weak opponents. Against them, exploitative poker is more effective. Catch a good combination — bet big. Miss — play check/fold to avoid unnecessary chip loss. Recreational players don’t monitor bluff or value bet frequencies, don’t write notes, and don’t use trackers.  

Top poker players switch between balance and exploitation at the right time

What's the point in adhering to GTO and betting 3 bluff barrels if the opponent is going all the way with a top pair without a kicker? It’s wiser to adapt the strategy to the field’s nuances and “print” money. Don’t completely abandon balance. Apply GTO principles against opponents lacking obvious flaws. Learning a balanced strategy is beneficial. At high stakes, GTO is indispensable.