How to Handle a Downswing

What is a Downstreak in Poker

Ups and downs are a natural part of human life. No one is able to act successfully 100% of the time. Let's take an example from European football. In 1999, "Manchester United" won: the Premier League, the FA Cup, and the Champions League. A year later, the strongest club in the world was knocked out in the quarter-finals of the Champions League and lost all domestic trophies except the championship. Poker players also don't avoid downturns. When defeats accompany a poker player over an extended period, we talk about a downstreak.

Along with "downstreak," players use the term "downswing." They carry the same meaning.

A downstreak is a run of bad luck in poker. In cash games, a downstreak is indicated by playing break-even or at a loss over several tens of thousands of hands. In tournaments, the player stops reaching the prizes or regularly exits 10-15 places away. During a downswing, a player:

• Receives mediocre starting hands. In most cases, poker players receive poor combinations on the preflop. Mathematically, AK is dealt every 82 hands, AA even less frequently — once every 221 hands. Therefore, "rubbish" combinations like 93o or J7 are dealt much more often. In a streak of bad luck, many poker players don't see strong combinations at all. Sometimes so much rubbish is dealt that J7 is seen as the nuts.

• Suffers due to coolers. A cooler is a hand where a player gets a strong hand, plays it correctly, but loses to an even stronger combination. Playing for a stack with KK and seeing an opponent with AA is a classic situation in poker. Today we lose with kings, tomorrow we win with aces. In a downstreak, the player constantly receives kings and loses to aces. Sometimes cooler mishaps happen several times a day.

• Loses due to bad beats. A bad beat is a hand where a poker player with high chances of winning falls to a worse hand due to luck. Let's take a situation in a blind battle in the late stages of a tournament. Suppose we're on BB and catch KK on the preflop. The player on SB goes all-in with T9o, we joyfully call, see his hand and wait for the double-up. On the flop, we catch a set, but by the river, the opponent gets a straight — and we are out. In a downswing, losses to outsiders become the norm.

• Draws fail to complete. Mathematically, a player with a flush draw will hit the necessary out with a 35% chance over two streets. In a streak of bad luck, he will never catch it. When the flush does come, the opponent will show a full house. 

It's important to distinguish a downstreak from poor play. Many poker players find it difficult to admit they are outmatched in skill. It's easier to blame luck and the random number generator. Experienced professionals and green novices alike fall into downswings. A high ROI or win rate over a large distance allows one to talk about a streak of bad luck more boldly. However, past successes do not protect against poor decisions in the present. Therefore, even professionals shouldn't attribute everything to a downstreak. Sometimes results fall due to real errors, not the imagined streak of bad luck. 

What Causes a Downstreak

If a poker player makes correct decisions but loses — variance is to blame. The concept was borrowed from mathematics. Variance is deviation of the actual result from the mathematical norm. Let's analyse it with an example of a player named Gus. Let's say the poker player played 100 tournaments for $10 each and won $1,500. Each tournament brought Gus a 50% profit from the invested dollar. In an ideal world, his graph would rise uniformly. However, variance introduced corrections, and Gus spent the first 50 tournaments losing. An impressive ROI and income was ensured by the second half of the distance.

A graph with sharp rises and falls is an external manifestation of variance. In each of Gus's first 50 tournaments, he was accompanied by bad beats, coolers, and bad starters. Over infinite distances, all players receive the same number of pocket aces and other starting hands. But they are dealt unevenly. Consider the same 100 tournaments. One player gets all strong combinations over a couple of tournaments, another — over 20, a third — they're spread over a hundred. The first poker player suffers the most from variance: in the following 98 tournaments, the RNG only deals him rubbish.

With identical play, a player can show a good profit or go into a solid loss. It all depends on variance.

An extended downstreak creates favourable conditions for tilt. Constant defeats cause irritation, anger, and despair. If the streak lasts several weeks, fear arises for the player. The brain projects yesterday's experience onto today's session: "why open tables if I'm going to lose again?" The joint "work" of downswing and tilt has ended many players' careers. To not join them, we recommend studying materials on tilt at FunFarm. 

The fund's players are helped to deal with tilt by the mental care department. Professional psychologists and mental coaches regularly conduct group and individual sessions. All specialists are familiar with poker, so they understand players' problems. Apply to FunFarm to overcome downstreak and tilt.

Sometimes a player radically revises their strategy due to a minor streak of bad luck. For example, a poker player played 3-bet twice with AK, hit top-pair kings on the post-flop, but lost the hands. All failures fit into one session. Under their influence, he stopped 3-betting with AK and began calling the hand on the preflop. As a result, the player abandoned the correct strategy. A few more negative "adjustments" and the poker player will start losing money not due to downswing, but their own fault.  

What Not to Do in a Downstreak

Not all strategies to tackle downstreaks are equally good. Let's consider popular but dubious methods. Here's what you shouldn't do:

Overcome the streak of bad luck with distance. Many players try to "spin out" the downswing by increasing the number of hands or tournaments. The logic is simple: "if I'm going to be dealt poorly all week, then it's easier to expand the distance and endure the pain for 1–2 days." In real life, this will only increase losses and stretch the downswing. The combination of lack of time and more tables won't allow the best decisions to be made.

Downstreak is a bad time for major changes.

Radically change your strategy. Some poker players are driven by the streak of bad luck to dramatically alter their style of play. Some players abandon bluffs, others narrow their ranges, and third ones start very aggressively 3-betting. Poker strategy includes a huge number of small details — sudden moves can break the entire mechanism. Introduce new ideas gradually and in controlled conditions. A downswing is a bad time for radical changes.

Recuperate losses in more expensive tournaments. Major success compensates for losses from a prolonged downturn. That's why some poker players go to play in tournaments with high buy-ins. Playing outside of bankroll management is not considered a good decision even on a "normal" variance period. During a downstreak, such "shots" will lead to catastrophe. Let bankroll management rules protect you from bankruptcy.   

How to Get Out of a Downstreak

Downstreak is an integral part of a poker player's career. The collective wisdom of players has developed a huge number of methods to tackle it. Let's discuss the most effective ones.

Rest. Daily defeats knock you off track. Some poker players take losses calmly, but over time, keeping emotions under control becomes increasingly difficult. If losses persist for several weeks, there's a high chance to accumulate tilt. To avoid it, take a break for a few days. Spend time on yourself, family, and friends. You won't forget how to play over a short break, but you'll rest from the downswing. A reboot preserves motivation and extinguishes negative emotions.

Work on strategy and psychology. Systematic learning lays the foundation for future successes. However, many players recall studying during a crisis. If the streak of bad luck doesn't let go, focus on learning. Analyse hand history, practice push/fold, watch thematic videos. When the downstreak ends, fresh knowledge will help elevate your game and income to a new level.

If the streak of bad luck has triggered tilt and shaken faith in your own abilities, pay special attention to psychology. Explore your reaction to defeats and dive into the topic of tilt. How emotions impact your game was discussed in the article on "tilt triggers." (link)

Drop to a lower limit. Some poker players wait out the streak of bad luck in cheaper games. The logic is simple: if bad dealing continues, the player loses less. An additional advantage is that weaker opponents can be beaten with superior skill.

Reducing the number of tables. To increase income, many players open several tables simultaneously. In a downswing, this approach brings additional losses. Reducing the number of tables enhances concentration. The player can watch opponents more attentively, make better decisions, and lose less. When the streak is over and confidence in one's game returns, the number of tables can be increased.

Reduce the number of tables to improve decision quality.

Changing discipline or type of poker. Temporarily switching to another game can help refocus attention. Many professionals take a break from tournaments in cash games. Some explore rare variants of poker like Badugi or H.O.R.S.E. An additional benefit of new experiences is the increased versatility of the player. The experiment may bear fruit in the future. For example, in the Mixed Games tournament at the WSOP.

Refining a specific skill. Multifariousness is one of poker's main advantages. Thousands of unique situations arise at the tables and a good player is prepared for each. To achieve a high level of skill, one must refine skills during play. Choose a specific topic before the session starts and give it heightened attention. Suppose you're losing a lot of money in blind battles. Compile a 3-bet range for BB against SB and diligently follow it. Working on the skill will take precedence, the downstreak will move to the background. 

Setting a Stop-Loss. Limitations on the number of lost stacks or buy-ins can reduce losses during a streak of bad luck. Once the daily limit is reached — close the poker room client. Stop-Loss preserves the player's bankroll from excessive losses. Following the rule in cash games is easier: lose 5 stacks — end the session. In tournaments, we recommend tracking the load. For example, if you spend $200 on buy-ins — don't start new tournaments. Some players criticise the method because it reduces hands or tournament numbers. However, surviving a downswing in poker is more important than hitting a distance at the cost of a bankroll.

Balancing your daily routine. Many players devote increased attention to poker. Other life aspects slip to the background. When things go well, the imbalance poses no great difficulty. During a slump, the situation changes: the poker player has nothing to distract themselves from failures. We recommend creating a schedule and strictly following it. Find an interesting hobby, enroll in a gym, adjust sleep schedule. Each activity helps distract from poker and restores mental state. Continue the routine even after the downstreak ends.

Transition to a salaried project at FunFarm. To minimise the impact of variance, stable earnings are required. A special fund program ensures this. Here's how it works:

• a month of losses — we pay a fixed salary;

• a month of slight profit — we contribute the necessary amount;

• a month of good profit — we share the profit.

Apply and become a part of the salaried project at FunFarm.