EV and ROI in poker: A complete guide to calculating your profitability

We will discuss the difference between EV and ROI, how to calculate each of these metrics using simple formulas, and how to use this knowledge to make profitable decisions at the table and assess your long-term success.

What is Expected Value (EV) and why is it the main tool for professionals?

Expected Value (EV) is the average profit or loss you can expect from a specific action (bet, call, fold) if you were to repeat it in identical situations an infinite number of times. EV does not predict the outcome of a single hand — anything can happen in it. Instead, it shows whether your decision will be profitable in the long run.  

The goal of a professional player is not to win every pot, but to consistently make decisions with a positive expected value (+EV). The sum of these small mathematically justified advantages turns into stable profit over time.  

An analogy with coin tossing: Imagine you are offered a bet. You wager $10. If heads come up, you receive $30. If tails, you lose your $10. The probability of each outcome is 50%.

• In 50% of cases, you will win $20 (your $10 back + $20 on top).

• In 50% of cases, you will lose $10. Over the course of 1000 tosses, you will average winning $20 * 500 times ($10,000) and losing $10 * 500 times ($5,000). Your net profit will be $5,000, or on average +$5 for each toss. This is an action with +EV.  

Fundamental EV Formula

At the core of all calculations is a simple formula that allows you to turn any poker situation into a mathematical problem:  

EV = (%W × $W) – (%L × $L)

Where:

• %W is your percentage chance of winning (your equity).

• $W is the amount you can win (the current pot + opponent's bets).

• %L is your percentage chance of losing (100% – %W).

• $L is the amount you are risking (the size of the bet you need to call).

How to Calculate EV: Necessary Tools and Concepts

For the EV formula to be a working tool, you need to learn how to determine the values of its variables. This requires mastering several key concepts.

Equity: Your Share of the Pot

Equity is your percentage chance of winning the pot if the hand went to showdown. For example, if the pot is $100 and your hand has an equity of 60%, it means that on average you 'own' $60 of that pot over the long run.  

For a quick assessment of equity during a game, the "Rule of 2 and 4" is used:

• On the flop (2 cards to come): Multiply the number of your outs (cards that improve your hand) by 4. For example, 9 outs on a flush draw will give you about 36% equity (9 × 4).  

• On the turn (1 card to come): Multiply the number of outs by 2. With the same 9 outs, your equity will be about 18% (9 × 2).  

For precise analysis away from the table, professionals use equity calculators (such as Equilab or online tools from GipsyTeam).  

Pot Odds: Is it Worth Calling?

Pot Odds are the ratio of the current size of the pot to the amount you need to invest to continue playing. This tool helps determine whether a call with a drawing hand is profitable.  

How to calculate the necessary equity for a call: Required equity (%) = (Amount to call) / (Total pot after opponent's bet + Amount to call) * 100%

Example: In a pot of $80. An opponent bets $20. You need to call $20 to win a pot that will become $120 ($80 + $20 + your $20). Required equity = $20 / $120 ≈ 16.7%

The main rule: A call is profitable (+EV) if the equity of your hand is greater than the required equity according to pot odds. In our example, if your equity is above 16.7%, the call will be advantageous.

What is ROI and how does it measure your success in poker?

Return on Investment (ROI) is the main indicator for measuring overall profitability in tournament poker (MTT and SNG). In cash games, this is measured using win rate (evbb/100). ROI shows how much net profit you make on each dollar invested in tournament buy-ins.  

ROI Calculation Formula

Calculating ROI requires accurate tracking of your results. The formula looks like this:  

ROI (%) = ((Total winnings - Total buy-ins) / Total buy-ins) × 100%

Example:

• You played 500 tournaments with an average buy-in of $10.

• Total amount of buy-ins (costs): 500 × $10 = $5,000.

• Total amount of winnings (prizes): $6,500.

• ROI calculation: (($6,500 - $5,000) / $5,000) × 100% = ($1,500 / $5,000) × 100% = 30%.

Your ROI is 30%, which means that for every dollar invested, you make an average of 30 cents in net profit.

What ROI is considered "good" in tournament poker?

A good ROI depends on the limits being played and the level of opponents. As stakes increase, the average skill level rises, making it harder to maintain a high ROI. 

In practice, realistic ROI values look like this:

• At limits up to $100 — an ROI of about 20% is considered an excellent result. This indicates stable, winning play, taking tournament variance into account.
  
  
  

• At high limits (from $100 and above) — an ROI of 10% or more already indicates skill. At these limits, there is strong competition, and opponents make fewer mistakes.

For an objective assessment of ROI, it is necessary to play at least 1,500–2,000 tournaments. Over a short distance, variance can distort the player's real level.

From calculations to mindset: How EV changes your game

Mastering the math is just the first step. True mastery lies in integrating this knowledge into your thought process.

Overcoming Outcome Orientation

Novices judge the game by the outcome: won — good, lost — bad. This is a detrimental approach. A professional uses  

"EV thinking": he evaluates not the outcome, but the quality of the decision at the moment it is made. Going all-in with aces against kings is the maximum +EV decision. Even if the opponent catches his king, your decision was correct and will yield huge profits in the long run.  

Understanding Variance

Variance is the statistical deviation of short-term results from long-term expected value (EV). Simply put, this is the "luck" in poker. Even if you consistently make +EV decisions, you are not immune to losing sessions (downswings). Understanding that this is a normal part of the game helps maintain psychological stability and avoid tilt.  

FAQ

What is the main difference between EV and ROI? 

EV is a tactical metric that assesses the profitability of one specific action in a hand. ROI is a strategic metric that measures the overall return on your investments in tournaments over the long run.  

Can EV be calculated in your head during a game? 

Exact EV calculations in real-time are nearly impossible. The goal is to develop an intuitive understanding through practice away from the table, which allows you to quickly assess situations and make decisions close to mathematically correct.  

Why is my ROI negative even though I strive to make +EV decisions? 

This is the work of variance. Over a short distance, randomness (luck) can heavily influence results, masking your real advantage. Continue making +EV decisions, and over sufficient distance, your results should approach expectations.  

How much distance can you trust your ROI?

 To smooth out the influence of variance and obtain a statistically significant ROI metric, it is recommended to play at least 1,500–2,000 tournaments. For 100 or even 500 tournaments, the results may be unrepresentative.